Earlier this year, on January 12, top officials in Caracas announced there would be electricity rationing lasting for at least 5 months and would affect everyone including schools and small health clinics; however the rationing would not affect large hospitals or important oil fields and refinery’s which have their own power generators.[1] The rationing comes after a failure to be able to produce enough electricity to meet the power demands of Venezuela. April 30, 2008 foreshadowed things to come; the Venezuela power grid failed due to “overload on a hot day” and the cities completely stalled; traffic congested as traffic lights were left powerless, communications were hampered, and industrial/oilfield productivity diminished.[2] This was the first example of major of power issues for the large cities of Venezuela and would not be the last.
The electrical issues in Caracas have been long in the making, but the current environmental conditions are nobody’s fault, not even Chavez’. The consensus among critics is that a large part of the problem is a lack of investment in electrical infrastructure since Chavez took control 11 years ago in 1999. The critics are correct, however, the reason that this lack of investment into electrical infrastructure has been brought to the forefront recently, is due to the worst drought Venezuela has seen in more than 50 years.[3] According to the country’s electricity grid manager, known as Opsis, Venezuela’s electricity consumption was 10,466 megawatts in November, with demand reaching 17,248 megawatts.[4] Herein, lies a great problem, in Caracas electrical consumption is the highest per-capita in Latin America mostly due to government subsidies, making electricity very cheap. However, part of the demand for electricity is not from superfluous uses, but from industry and commerce. As we know, oftentimes the measure of a countries electrical consumption is used to measure its progress and development. Chavez is holding back the development of his country’s economy by neglecting to ensure a viable method of electrical production. Granted, he may be concerned about the environmental effects of burning oil to produce electricity, but if the oil that is pumped from Venezuela’s depths is not utilized domestically, then the countries it is sold to will use the oil to their own advantage—would it not be better to keep a portion of the oil at home to create electricity and foster a more diverse and sustainable economy within Venezuela, one which does not rely almost entirely on oil exports?
This blog is being written at an important time in regard to Venezuela’s electrical issues. 73 percent of the electricity consumed in Caracas comes from the Guri hydroelectric dam, located in Bolivar state on the Caroni River. March 19, 2010: the drought has forced a drop in the Guri dam’s water level from its optimal level of 270 meters down to 252.42 meters above sea level.[5] The water level is dropping at approximately 15 centimeters per day—at this rate, if there are no new rains, the water level will reach the crisis point of 240 meters above sea level by early May.[6] As a precautionary measure, in February this year, the government initiated rolling blackouts throughout the country; even in the capital of Caracas there are often unexpected power outages and companies that do not reduce power usage by 20 percent are fined and temporarily shut down.[7] To add to the already tense atmosphere between the public and government, on January 14, Chavez announced that he would be retracting the plan that was announced only two days earlier to ration electricity for the following 5 months. With such a flip-flop move the government seemed indecisive and unstable; Chavez knew this and that is why he fired his electricity minister because “ the first day of rationing uncovered technical errors”.[8] What likely happened is that there were no technical problems, instead there was a lack of communication so people were losing power without knowing in advance and became very angry and frustrated. Chavez is afraid and aware of the ability for the electricity problems to cast a shadow over his leadership—already declining in popularity due to high levels of inflation.
Any amount of power rationing or power failures are detrimental to Caracas’s and Venezuela’s productivity; however, something must be done to maintain order and stability. If the water level at the Guri dam DOES drop below 240 meters above sea level, the productivity in Venezuela also drops, drastically. If the Guri dam fails to provide its 73 percent share of electrical production to Caracas and the rest of Venezuela, productivity falls the same percentage minus the various oil refineries that have their own power generators. When the power fails in Caracas, banking systems, debit card systems, telecommunications, cell phones, criminal databases, street lights, security cameras, gas pumps, air conditioners, refrigerators, etcetera…everything stops being connected and/or working when the power is out. Consider a family, unable to retrieve their savings from the bank or make a purchase with their debit or credit card, sitting in their sweltering hot home with the food in the refrigerator becoming rotten and no job to go to because the factories and stores are closed and no way to fuel their vehicle to leave the city. This type of situation would be highly primed for chaos.
In Caracas, it is likely that the aforementioned situation would not only result in looting and rioting but the political polarization between the classes would be softened and they may—for the time being—band together to fix their common problem (Chavez). Most of the blame would be directed at Chavez even though 85% of the population is in poverty—Chavez’ popular support base--they benefit from electricity too, even if it is only to keep streetlights on and water flowing. Chavez is surely weary of this fact because finally after two years of serious electricity problems, he has recently signed a deal with the leader of Russia, Prime Minister Putin, to gain nuclear energy.[9] This deal brings Moscow and Caracas ever closer in their effort to make a muti-polar world instead of US hegemony—further exemplified by the oil for arms deals between Russia and Venezuela. Also, to comfort the population’s electrical woes, Chavez has promised to install 4000 megawatts of new power production via thermoelectric power plants by the end of 2010, but analysts say that delays and difficulties in setting up the plants make the goal unrealistic.[10] This plan may be a little to late to save Chavez’ declining popularity, in September, we will see what the population truly thinks when they legislative election is held. A loss of majority could mean the political pendulum is swinging away from Chavez and towards the opposition. This type of shift would not cross to the right-wing because of the massive poor population, but definitely would prefer something slightly less radical and more concerned with the proper functioning of the country instead a sole focus on the demise of capitalism, no matter the costs.
At this point it looks like Chavez will just keep praying for rain on his weekly show Alo Presidante.[11] Meanwhile, the Guri dam water levels continue dropping and of course there has been no announcements made for a back up plan. This is not surprising because choices in the realm of Chavez are often impulsive and come unannounced; even once announced his plans fail or are turned back on and some poor minister of (insert department here), trying his very best, is fired to make up for it Chavez’ faults. Even if it does rain heavily
UPDATE: CHAVEZ’ PRAYERS ANSWERED, somewhat.
The Caracas newspaper El Universal, has reported that the rainy season has started in southern Venezuela and “the volume at Guri dam is gradually rising”. BUT, “optimum levels will take a long time, perhaps a couple of years.”[12] The rainy season, an annually occurring event—not God—has probably bought saved the Chavistas some votes at the polls, but electrical demand is still much higher than supply. A couple of years before the Guri dam is operating fully means that it will be important for Chavez to actually follow through with the installation of nuclear and thermo-electrical power plants, so that industry and the people are contented and he can remain in his role as dictator for a few more years. Until more power is scrounged up from somewhere, Caracas and all other cities are held back developmentally and poverty is further entrenched.
[1] Frank Jack Daniel, "Venezuela plans blackouts in Caracas, oil town." Reuters, January 12, 2010. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60B56Y20100112 (accessed April 12, 2010).
[2] Simon Romero, "Life Stalls in Venezuela as Power Shuts Off." New York Times, April 30, 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/world/americas/30VENEZ.html?fta=y (accessed April 20, 2010).
[3] Jose Orozco and Daniel Cancel, "Chavez Fires Minister for Faulty Caracas Blackout (Update4)." Bloomberg.com, January 14, 2010. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aBdfQ7cVH2BA (accessed April 19, 2010).
[4] Ibid.
[5] Darcy Crowe, "Water Worries Weigh on Venezuela ." The Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2010. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704059004575128563744733500.html (accessed April 12, 2010).
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Jose Orozco and Daniel Cancel.
[9] Associated Press, "Chavez: Russia Offers Venezuela Nuclear Help." Fox News.com, April 3, 2010. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/04/03/chavez-russia-offers-venezuela-nuclear-help/ (accessed April 19, 2010).
[10] Darcy Crowe.
[11] Darcy Crowe.
[12] Mariela León, "Recovery of Guri dam levels to take two years." El Universal, April 9,2010. http://english.eluniversal.com/2010/04/09/en_ing_esp_recovery-of-guri-dam_09A3718055.shtml (accessed April 13, 2010).
Image source: Carol, Semi-dim Bulb, The displaced african, Africans personal development blog, October, 2008 http://www.thedisplacedafrican.com/1622/when-the-deal-is-too-good-think-twice/ (accessed April 4, 2010).
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